Oscar predictions 2026

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories.  I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2026’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win!

Best picture – One Battle After Another

It’s essentially a two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, and although I want Sinners to win, I suspect One Battle After Another has the momentum to win out in the end.

Nominees:

Bugonia
Frankenstein
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

Best actress – Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Perhaps the closest thing to a “sure thing” this Oscars season, Jessie Buckley has been the frontrunner in this category from the start, and it would be a major upset if she didn’t win here.

Nominees:

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best actor – Michael B Jordan (Sinners)

Although I think One Battle After Another will beat out Sinners in most categories, I think Michael B Jordan’s dual performance may be enough to win him the acting Oscar.

Nominees:

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Michael B Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Best supporting actress – Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Although Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA, this is really a two-horse race between Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor.  It’s a close call, but I’m going with my heart over my head and saying that Amy Madigan’s transformative and memorable performance will (deservedly) win her the Oscar (even given the Academy’s history of overlooking “genre” performances).

Nominees:

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best supporting actor – Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

I’d love for Jacob Elordi to win for his revelatory performance in Frankenstein, but realistically, the frontrunner is Sean Penn, who’s almost certain to win … unless the industry’s affection for Stellan Skarsgård (coupled with the fact he’s never won as Oscar, and Sean Penn has two) is enough for him to pull off a surprise win.

Nominees:

Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Best director – Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Another category that’s all but sewn up is Best Director, where PTA is almost certain to win.

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet

Best adapted screenplay – One Battle After Another

I predict this will be One Battle After Another’s fourth win in the “main” ten categories.

Nominees:

Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams

Best original screenplay – Sinners

Without One Battle After Another in this category, I think this one will go to Sinners.

Nominees:

Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners

Best cinematography – One Battle After Another

Again, I’d love to see Sinners win (some of the cinematography was straight up iconic), but I think the momentum is currently behind One Battle After Another.

Nominees:

Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso

Best costume design – Frankenstein

This is one of the hardest categories to call – although I don’t think the Academy is really ready to embrace the “digital costumes” in Avatar: Fire and Ash…  Sinners would be a worthy winner for its iconic sense of period style, but I hope that this is a category where Frankenstein could actually earn a “main” Oscar win.  But I’m probably letting my love for that movie cloud my objective judgment!

Nominees:

Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 15 March to see how I did!  Last year I only managed to get 6 out of 10 correct (not my best performance) … so I’m hoping to do better this year!